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The House has scheduled sessions on only 12 legislative days between now and January 30, when government funding expires. That’s 12 days to pass nine major spending bills covering everything from the Defense Department to environmental protection to diplomatic operations. Twelve days to hold hearings on an unauthorized military operation in a foreign country. Twelve days to vote on healthcare subsidies that expired New Year’s Eve, leaving 22 to 24 million Americans facing premium increases averaging 114 percent.
Congress returns this week facing a scheduling crisis. Nine of twelve spending bills remain unfinished. Lawmakers must simultaneously respond to President Trump’s military operation in Venezuela—an operation that caught Congress entirely off-guard and that most constitutional scholars say required congressional authorization Trump never sought.
Something’s going to break. The question is what.
Unfinished Spending Bills
Congress has passed three of twelve required funding bills for fiscal year 2026. The remaining nine aren’t routine or minor bills—they’re Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-Housing-Urban Development, Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, Homeland Security, Energy-Water, Financial Services, and State-Foreign Operations.
Without these bills or another temporary funding extension, substantial portions of the government shut down on January 31. Federal employees stop getting paychecks. They endured a 43-day shutdown that ended in early November—the longest in American history—and now face the prospect of another one barely two months later.
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned effective January 5, shrinking the Republican majority to 220-214. Speaker Mike Johnson can lose two Republican votes on any measure. Three Republican defections mean he needs Democratic support, which means making concessions on issues like healthcare that conservatives oppose.
Healthcare Subsidies Expire
Government help paying for health insurance premiums expired December 31. Millions of Americans woke up January 1 facing insurance premiums that increased by an average of 114 percent. Four moderate House Republicans—Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, and Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie, also of Pennsylvania—joined Democrats to force a vote on a three-year extension. They used a procedural rule that forces a vote even if leadership opposes it, bypassing Johnson entirely.
That vote happens this week. Probably Wednesday.
Johnson opposes it. Most Republicans oppose it. But those four Republicans represent swing districts where constituents are already calling about their insurance bills. Democrats see healthcare as their winning issue for the 2026 midterms and have no intention of letting Republicans off the hook quietly.
The Senate rejected a simple three-year extension in December and is working on a deal that limits subsidies based on how much money people make and includes checks to prevent cheating. Even when the House passes its version, the Senate will pass something different. They’ll need to work out the differences before January 30.
Trump’s Unauthorized Military Operation in Venezuela
On January 3, Trump announced that U.S. military forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas. Trump said the United States would “run the country” until a proper transition could occur and announced plans for American oil companies to invest billions in Venezuela’s damaged infrastructure.
He did not notify Congress in advance. He did not seek authorization. He announced it on social media.
The Constitution is clear about who gets to decide on declaring war or authorizing military operations: Congress. Not the president. Senator Tim Kaine put it plainly: “There is no legal justification in the Constitution, in the history of the Constitution, or an American law that would authorize the president to wage war, to depose President Maduro and seize its oil and run the country of Venezuela without coming to Congress.”
Kaine has introduced a Senate resolution requiring Trump to get congressional approval before continuing military action. The Senate votes on it this week. When similar votes on whether Trump had the right to do this came up in November, two Republicans supported them. Nothing suggests those numbers have changed.
Most Republicans have rallied behind Trump. Most Democrats are furious. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Maduro an “illegitimate dictator” while simultaneously condemning Trump’s action as “reckless.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said “launching military action without congressional authorization and without a credible plan for what comes next is reckless” and added that Americans don’t support “another expensive foreign war.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Pam Bondi, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine are briefing the top leaders of both parties in both chambers Monday evening at 5:30 p.m. Trump addresses House Republicans at their Kennedy Center retreat Tuesday.
This briefing schedule came only after Schumer and Jeffries explicitly demanded immediate briefings for the top leaders of both parties in both chambers followed by briefings for all members. The administration wasn’t planning to brief lawmakers until they demanded it.
Competing Deadlines and Procedural Challenges
Here’s what has to happen in the next 25 days: Pass nine spending bills. Vote on healthcare subsidies in both chambers and reconcile the differences. Hold briefings on the operation. Vote on whether Trump had the right to do this. Negotiate with the administration about long-term policy. Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna are preparing a resolution holding Attorney General Bondi in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply over delays releasing Epstein files, which could also be forced to a vote through a procedure that bypasses leadership.
The House is in session twelve days. Senate rules mean Republicans need some Democratic votes to pass legislation, so bipartisan support isn’t optional.
The leadership plan was to bring a combined bill bundling three separate spending bills together to the House floor this week—Commerce-Justice-Science, Interior-Environment, and Energy-Water appropriations. If it passes with bipartisan support, it could become a vehicle for a temporary funding extension to buy more time for negotiations in the Senate on the harder bills like Defense and Labor-HHS-Education.
Now Monday evening gets consumed by administration briefings. Tuesday morning gets consumed by Trump’s address to House Republicans. The healthcare vote happens Wednesday. The vote on whether Trump had the right to do this could happen any day, either through normal voting or through a forced vote procedure. And somewhere in there, the three-bill package needs floor time, debate, amendments, and a vote.
Either spending legislation gets delayed while lawmakers address the operation, making the January 30 deadline nearly impossible to meet. Or lawmakers handle them separately—deal with the operation through briefings and maybe a symbolic vote that fails along party lines, then pivot to spending legislation. Or leadership tries to do both simultaneously and does neither well.
Shutdown Probability
Political analysts put the probability of another shutdown somewhere between “meaningful” and “likely,” with much depending on this week’s decisions. Senate Democrats have indicated they don’t want to start 2026 “spoiling for a fight” and seem satisfied with how they elevated healthcare as a campaign issue during the 43-day shutdown. That suggests reduced appetite for another prolonged closure.
Progressive Democrats want to use the threat of shutdown to extract concessions on policy. Some Democratic senators, including Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, have already indicated they’ll use Senate rules to delay votes on spending legislation unless administration positions align with their priorities—in their case, regarding the National Center for Atmospheric Research. If that approach spreads to policy concerns, spending negotiations could deadlock quickly.
Trump told GOP senators in November that he believed shutdowns were “negative for Republicans” and had played a significant factor in Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey in 2025. That suggests he’ll pressure Republicans to avoid another one. But Trump also launched an unauthorized military operation without consulting lawmakers, so he doesn’t seem committed to following normal rules.
The most likely scenarios: either the three-bill package passes this week and negotiations continue on the remaining six with another package or temporary funding extension before January 30, or lawmakers pass a second temporary funding extension into February or March while negotiations drag on. The least likely scenario is that all nine pass by January 30. The math simply doesn’t work.
Who Pays for Congressional Dysfunction
Federal employees went six weeks without paychecks during the 43-day shutdown. Now they’re preparing contingency plans for another funding lapse. Agencies have received guidance to prepare for potential funding lapses, though what agencies have to do depends on what lawmakers decide.
The 22 to 24 million Americans with health insurance bought through the government marketplace are already paying. Their premiums increased January 1 when the enhanced subsidies expired. Whether lawmakers pass a three-year extension or a compromise with income caps, those people have already absorbed at least one month of higher costs. Many will drop coverage entirely rather than pay the higher premiums, which is how you get a situation when premiums get so high that healthy people drop coverage, leaving only sick people, which makes premiums even higher.
Community health clinics, telehealth providers, and other healthcare programs extended through the temporary funding extension face funding uncertainty after January 30. Low-income energy assistance programs and SNAP benefits have experienced disruptions in previous shutdowns and could face new interruptions.
The opposition movement, which the Trump administration had previously supported as the legitimate winner of 2024 elections, finds itself sidelined as the administration works with interim President Delcy Rodríguez. International observers are monitoring congressional developments with concern, because the absence of clear congressional oversight creates uncertainty about long-term American policy and the administration’s intentions regarding resource extraction and governance.
When Secretary Rubio was asked about governance, he spoke only of implementing “a quarantine that allows us to exert tremendous leverage over what happens next,” deliberately avoiding Trump’s promise to “run” the country. This suggests the administration hasn’t determined long-term policy.
This Week’s Critical Votes
Monday evening’s briefings will establish whether the administration has any coherent long-term plan or whether this was an impulsive operation with no exit strategy. If Trump signals flexibility and commitment to congressional consultation during Tuesday’s House Republican retreat, some Republicans might feel comfortable demanding more oversight. If Trump doubles down on executive authority claims, nearly all Republicans will block restrictions and the constitutional crisis continues unresolved.
The healthcare vote Tuesday or Wednesday will signal whether bipartisan compromise is possible on anything. If it passes with substantial Republican support, leadership might feel emboldened to pursue other bipartisan deals. If most Republicans oppose it despite constituent pressure, that suggests political hardening that will complicate spending negotiations.
The three-bill package vote—probably Thursday—will determine whether momentum builds toward completing spending legislation by January 30 or whether negotiations stall and extend into February. If it passes with strong bipartisan support, the remaining six might follow a similar path. If it squeaks through or fails, temporary funding extensions become inevitable.
This week determines whether the crisis diverts leadership attention and floor time from spending legislation, or whether both can proceed on parallel tracks. If votes on presidential authority consume floor days before spending legislation is addressed, the January 30 deadline becomes difficult to meet. If leadership successfully handles them separately, shutdown avoidance becomes plausible.
How leadership handles these intersecting crises in the coming days will determine whether Americans face another government shutdown, how rules about when presidents can use military force without Congress evolve, and whether lawmakers can function during periods of emergency.
Lawmakers have twelve days to figure it out. The clock started this morning.
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