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Minneapolis police logged $3 million in overtime costs in twelve days. That’s for one city. Factor in lost tax revenue from shuttered businesses, emergency services responding to federal enforcement actions, court costs for translation and public defenders, and the total damage to Minnesota hits roughly $18 million per week, according to economic analysis by North Star Policy Action.
In late December 2025, 3,000 federal immigration agents deployed to Minneapolis and St. Paul. The costs started piling up immediately: $3 million in police overtime in twelve days for Minneapolis alone. Schools closed. Emergency rooms emptied of immigrant patients. Restaurants reported zero customers. Construction sites went silent.
That $18 million isn’t a one-time expense. It’s a recurring weekly cost to budgets for an operation Minnesota didn’t request and didn’t authorize.
The operation, dubbed “Metro Surge,” deployed approximately 3,000 federal agents to the Twin Cities metro area. When Minnesota sued to halt it, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez acknowledged the operation had “profound and even heartbreaking consequences” for the state—then declined to intervene anyway.
Which raises the question nobody seems able to answer: Who pays for this?
Direct Costs to Minnesota
Officers canceled days off. Shifts extended indefinitely. The overtime costs hit $3 million in less than two weeks, following the January 7 shooting death of Renee Good, which occurred during an ICE enforcement action.
Court systems absorbed massive translation and public defender costs. Emergency services responded to confrontations between federal agents and community members. When federal agents flood your jurisdiction and community disruption follows, local law enforcement must respond. It’s not a choice. It’s money the federal government forced cities to spend from budgets that were already strained.
Economic Damage Beyond Government Budgets
Tejaban Mex Grill and numerous other immigrant-owned restaurants reported zero customers during heightened enforcement periods. Construction companies lost workers who feared apprehension. Day care facilities closed when staff didn’t show up.
That’s not money changing hands. That’s productive capacity vanishing. Construction projects not built. Restaurant meals not served. Child care not provided. Minnesota can’t easily charge the federal government for lost tax money on businesses that would normally generate revenue. Businesses that would normally generate tax revenue for cities are instead failing or closing temporarily.
The ripple effects extend beyond immigrant-owned businesses. Suppliers lose orders when restaurants close. Landlords lose rent when businesses can’t pay. Banks see loan defaults rise. Property values in heavily immigrant neighborhoods have begun declining as prospective buyers avoid areas with heavy federal presence. Real estate agents report transactions falling through when buyers learn about enforcement activity in the area. For homeowners—many of whom built equity over decades—this represents wealth destruction that may take years to recover.
The Judge’s Ruling and Its Legal Trap
Judge Menendez’s January 31 ruling acknowledged the evidence of harm. Then she declined to stop the operation. This creates a legal trap: a small federal action causing harm might trigger an injunction. But an operation so large it affects communities becomes unreviewable precisely because of its magnitude. The bigger the disruption, the harder it becomes for judges to stop it. The acknowledged injury provides no legal remedy because remedying it would be too disruptive.
Why Reimbursement Mechanisms Don’t Exist
States typically recover federal-related costs through Congress voting to pay for it, federal disaster relief, or negotiated cost-sharing agreements. Operation Metro Surge fits none of these categories. It’s not a congressionally authorized program with a line item for reimbursement. It’s not a disaster requiring FEMA assistance. There’s no negotiated agreement. And the Trump administration has not indicated it will seek extra federal funding to pay Minnesota back.
When the Trump administration wanted to pressure “sanctuary cities,” it threatened to cut hundreds of millions in federal grants. Federal funding became a tool for coercion, not compensation.
Theoretical Legal Paths Forward
According to Supreme Court rulings, the federal government can’t force states to run federal programs without providing funding. But Judge Menendez’s reluctance to “micromanage” federal operations suggests courts may be unwilling to determine how much states should be paid. Even if the state eventually prevails, years of litigation would pass while costs accumulate monthly.
A second path: sue for damages to cover the time the federal government overstepped its power if the state ultimately wins on its claims. But what would that include? Damages for overtime? For foregone tax revenue? There aren’t many similar cases, and they usually involve damaged property, not the diffuse, ongoing costs of an enforcement operation.
A third option: Congress could vote to pay for it. Minnesota’s elected representatives could push for specific funding to reimburse the state. But this works only when Congress is receptive. Current Republican leadership has shown little sympathy for blue-state fiscal complaints. Republican leadership has framed sanctuary policies as deliberate obstruction of federal law, making reimbursement politically toxic. Democratic members lack the votes to force appropriations through. Even if political winds shift after the next election, years of accumulated costs would remain unrecovered.
Implications for Other States and Federal Power
Twenty state attorneys general filed a legal brief supporting Minnesota. They’re watching closely because they could face the same problem. Could the federal government deploy large-scale operations over drug enforcement, organized crime, or other federal priorities, generating massive costs, on the theory that once operations reach sufficient scale, courts become reluctant to interfere?
Judge Menendez didn’t explicitly establish this. But her reasoning provides the framework. The larger the federal operation, the harder it becomes for judges to stop it. Congress allocated $170 billion for immigration enforcement over several years, including $45 billion specifically for detention centers. The bill doesn’t include any way for states to get paid back for costs of federal enforcement operations. Congress left this out on purpose.
Health, Education, and Community Trust Impacts
Dr. Roli Dwivedi, past president of the Minnesota Academy of Family Physicians, testified he’d “never seen this level of chaos and fear” in nineteen years of practicing medicine, including during COVID-19. Hospital staff from Latin America, Somalia, Myanmar, and other countries stopped coming to work, reducing medical capacity. A patient with kidney cancer vanished into federal detention, requiring legal intervention while his condition deteriorated.
Schools faced disruption. Attendance plummeted as families kept children home out of fear. Teachers reported students unable to concentrate, asking whether their parents would be taken. The educational impact of weeks of interrupted learning compounds over time, particularly for younger students in critical developmental periods.
Small business owners—many of whom had survived the economic damage from COVID-19—now face a different kind of shutdown. Unlike a pandemic, where government aid programs provided some relief, this crisis comes with no government help. Restaurants that invested in rebuilding their customer base now sit empty. Construction firms that bid on projects can’t complete them.
Community trust in institutions has eroded. Residents who previously cooperated with law enforcement now avoid contact, fearing any interaction with authorities could lead to detention. Crime victims don’t report incidents. Witnesses don’t come forward. The long-term damage to public safety infrastructure may exceed the immediate costs of overtime.
Mental health providers report increased anxiety, depression, and trauma symptoms among immigrant families and their children. Schools have seen increases in behavioral problems as students process fear and uncertainty. These psychological impacts will require years of treatment and support.
The Accountability Problem
How the U.S. system divides power between federal and state governments assumes that whoever makes the decision should pay the costs to create political accountability. When states make law enforcement choices, they pay for them. Voters see the consequences in their tax bills. This makes officials think twice before spending money.
But when the federal government makes an enforcement decision that forces costs onto states, it breaks that link. Federal officials make the policy choice. State and local officials pay the costs. Voters have no way to hold federal officials accountable because the operation wasn’t authorized by their elected representatives.
Attorney General Keith Ellison has pledged to continue litigation, but the next steps are unclear. The state could pursue the core constitutional arguments despite the judge’s decision not to stop the operation. Appeal to the federal appeals court. Sue for money instead of trying to stop the operation. Lobby Congress for appropriations. Or transition from litigation to political pressure. Each option requires years while costs accumulate weekly. The fiscal crisis is immediate. The state must budget for these costs now, with no prospect of recovering them from the federal government in the foreseeable future.
Judges can acknowledge that a federal operation causes “profound and heartbreaking consequences.” But the enormity of modern federal enforcement operations may mean judges can’t fix problems this big. The state faces $18 million in weekly costs for an operation it cannot stop and cannot get reimbursed for. Border Czar Tom Homan suggested the operation might be reduced if Minnesota cooperates with federal detention access—using the operation as leverage to force the state to cooperate rather than neutral law enforcement.
The costs aren’t a mistake. They’re intentional. And there’s no way to make the federal government pay.
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