Long-term Climate Scenarios

Long-term climate scenarios are computer-based projections that help scientists, policymakers, and federal agencies understand what Earth’s climate may look like decades into the future. These scenarios model how temperature, precipitation, sea levels, and weather patterns might change based on different assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions, economic development, and climate policy choices. By examining multiple possible futures, the U.S. government can better prepare for climate-related risks to military installations, coastal communities, infrastructure, and the economy.

How Climate Projections Work

Climate projections use sophisticated computer models that simulate how the Earth’s climate system responds to various scenarios. Federal agencies like NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey rely on these models to forecast changes over the next few decades and beyond. The scenarios typically consider different levels of future emissions based on policy decisions and societal choices. Understanding how these projections are created—and what uncertainties they contain—is essential for evaluating long-term climate trends and preparing adaptation strategies.

From Predictions to Preparation

While long-term climate scenarios extend over decades, shorter-term forecasts matter too. For insights into what to expect in the coming years, explore Climate Predictions for the Next Decade, which breaks down near-term climate patterns and their potential impacts. Federal agencies use both short-term and long-term projections to guide adaptation planning, disaster preparedness, and strategic infrastructure decisions that protect American communities.