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The sticker price of war—the dollars appropriated by Congress—is only a down payment. The true costs are paid over decades, measured not just in trillions of dollars, but in human lives, environmental health, geopolitical stability, and opportunities lost at home.
This report provides an accounting of these hidden, long-term costs, using the U.S. conflict in Iraq as a primary lens to understand the enduring legacy of America’s post-9/11 wars. The analysis draws heavily on the work of the Costs of War Project, a nonpartisan research effort based at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs.
The figures reveal a chasm between the initial, optimistic projections sold to the American public and the devastating, multi-generational reality of modern warfare. More than two decades after 9/11, the United States continues to pay a mounting price for conflicts that were supposed to be swift, affordable, and decisive.
From Billions to Trillions: The Budgetary Black Hole
The financial story of the post-9/11 wars, particularly the conflict in Iraq, is one of profound and consistent underestimation, facilitated by opaque funding mechanisms that obscured the true scale of spending from the American public and lawmakers alike.
What was initially presented as a limited and affordable engagement became one of the most expensive military endeavors in U.S. history, with costs that continue to accrue long after the withdrawal of combat troops.
Initial Projections vs Reality
In the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, senior administration officials presented the conflict as fiscally manageable. In December 2002, Mitch Daniels, then the director of the Office of Management and Budget, estimated the total cost would be between $50 billion and $60 billion.
Around the same time, White House chief economic adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey suggested an “upper bound” cost of $100 billion to $200 billion, an estimate that was publicly dismissed as “very, very high” and reportedly contributed to his departure from the administration.
On the eve of the invasion, Vice President Dick Cheney was confronted with an analysis suggesting the war would cost at least $100 billion for a two-year involvement. Cheney’s response, according to later accounts, was dismissive: “So?”
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld painted an even rosier picture, suggesting that Iraqi oil revenues would help pay for reconstruction. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told Congress that Iraq could “really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.”
These initial figures stand in stark contrast to comprehensive, long-term analyses conducted in the years since. The Costs of War Project at Brown University, using a methodology that includes not only direct Pentagon spending but also costs for veterans’ care, interest on war-related debt, and war-related spending by the State Department, calculates the total cost of the post-9/11 wars at over $8 trillion through Fiscal Year 2022.
The portion for the Iraq War alone is estimated at $1.79 trillion to date. When future obligations for veterans’ care are factored in, that figure is projected to climb to $2.89 trillion by the year 2050.
Even earlier, in 2008, Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard’s Linda Bilmes calculated the war’s true cost at $3 trillion, a figure they later acknowledged was likely too low. Their book, “The Three Trillion Dollar War,” detailed hidden costs that official government accounting systematically ignored or underestimated.
This vast discrepancy between early projections and ultimate reality underscores a fundamental misunderstanding—or misrepresentation—of the nature of modern, long-term counter-insurgency warfare.
The initial, low-ball estimates failed to account for the duration of the occupation, the costs of reconstruction, the immense and lifelong needs of a new generation of veterans, and the interest on the debt used to finance the entire endeavor.
More troubling, internal documents and later testimonies suggest that some administration officials may have known these early estimates were unrealistic but chose to present optimistic figures to maintain public support for the invasion.
| Source | Date of Estimate | Cost Projection (Iraq War) | Notes/Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| White House (Mitch Daniels) | 2002 | $50 – $60 billion | Official pre-war estimate from the Office of Management and Budget |
| White House (Lawrence Lindsey) | 2002 | $100 – $200 billion | Considered a “very, very high” estimate at the time; Lindsey left the administration shortly after |
| Congressional Budget Office (CBO) | 2007 | $1.9 trillion (by 2017) | CBO estimate for the Iraq portion of post-9/11 wars, including projected interest on debt |
| Stiglitz & Bilmes | 2008 | $3 trillion+ | Comprehensive academic estimate including direct, indirect, and macroeconomic costs |
| Costs of War Project | 2023 | $2.89 trillion (by 2050) | Most current comprehensive estimate, including direct costs to date and future obligations for veterans’ care |
The “Emergency” Funding Loophole
A key reason for the disconnect between initial projections and final costs lies in how the wars were funded. Instead of being included in the regular annual defense budget, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were financed primarily through “emergency” and “Overseas Contingency Operations” (OCO) supplemental appropriations.
This budgetary mechanism, intended for unforeseen and short-term crises, became the standard procedure for funding a multi-decade war.
The use of emergency supplementals was not accidental—it was a deliberate political strategy. Emergency funding bills face less scrutiny than regular budget items. They can be passed quickly, often with minimal debate, and they don’t require offsetting cuts elsewhere in the budget. This allowed the administration to pursue an expensive war while simultaneously cutting taxes, a combination that would have been politically impossible under normal budgetary procedures.
Data from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and congressional testimony document the relentless growth of these supplemental requests. For the Iraq War, funding grew from an initial $54.4 billion in the FY2003 supplemental to a peak request of $160 billion for FY2008.
By December 2014, the CRS had tracked a total of $815 billion appropriated specifically for Operation Iraqi Freedom and its successor, Operation New Dawn, out of a $1.6 trillion total for all post-9/11 military operations to that point.
The emergency funding mechanism also enabled what budget experts call “mission creep” in war spending. Items that had little direct connection to combat operations were increasingly included in war supplementals. These included upgrades to military facilities worldwide, purchases of equipment for potential future conflicts, and even some domestic homeland security expenses.
This funding method was not merely a technical choice; it had profound political implications. As explained by Linda Bilmes in congressional testimony, this approach was a historical anomaly. In previous major conflicts, war costs were eventually integrated into the regular defense budget, which forced Congress and the Pentagon to make difficult trade-offs between wartime needs and other military priorities.
The post-9/11 supplemental appropriations, however, were largely exempt from statutory spending caps and did not require offsetting cuts in other programs. This process minimized congressional scrutiny and public debate over the war’s escalating price tag.
By separating war costs from the main budget, the government could pursue massive spending without transparent discussion of its fiscal consequences, effectively insulating the war from political opposition based on its cost.
Furthermore, the definition of “war cost” within these supplementals was progressively expanded. Analysis by the CBO and CRS found that a growing share of OCO funding was dedicated to “reset”—the repair and replacement of equipment.
This went far beyond simply fixing war-worn gear. The Department of Defense broadened the definition to include significant equipment upgrades, the insertion of new technologies, and the purchase of new systems beyond pre-war levels.
A telling example: the Pentagon used war supplementals to fund the development and deployment of Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, which cost $45 billion. While these vehicles saved lives in Iraq and Afghanistan, the program also resulted in the military acquiring thousands of vehicles that it later struggled to use or maintain, with many eventually being given away to local police departments or scrapped.
In effect, the OCO budget became a parallel, less-scrutinized channel to fund long-term military modernization. A significant hidden cost of the war was the use of the conflict as justification to fund a broader military buildup, with costs not transparently attributed to the war itself but that were a direct consequence of it.
Beyond the Pentagon’s Books
To grasp the true financial burden, one must look beyond the Pentagon’s direct spending. This is the central contribution of the Costs of War Project. Its methodology provides a holistic view by incorporating several major cost categories often omitted from official government reports:
Pentagon “base” budget increases: War-related increases to the regular defense budget, such as heightened security at bases and increased recruitment bonuses. These “base budget” increases often received less attention than the high-profile supplemental appropriations, but they represented a permanent expansion of military spending that continued even after combat operations ended.
The base budget grew substantially during the war years, from $287 billion in FY2001 to $528 billion in FY2010. While not all of this increase was directly war-related, much of it was justified by the ongoing conflicts and the need to rebuild and modernize forces.
Department of State and Homeland Security spending: Costs for diplomatic operations, foreign aid, reconstruction, and domestic counter-terrorism efforts. State Department spending in Iraq and Afghanistan included massive embassy construction projects, with the U.S. embassy in Baghdad becoming the largest and most expensive embassy in the world at a cost of $750 million.
The Department of Homeland Security, created in response to 9/11, represents another major category of war-related spending that is often overlooked. Since its creation in 2003, DHS has spent over $1 trillion on domestic security measures, much of which can be directly traced to the post-9/11 threat environment.
Care for veterans: The massive, long-term costs of medical care and disability benefits administered by the Department of Veterans Affairs. This category represents the largest single component of long-term war costs, and it’s growing rapidly as the full extent of veterans’ health needs becomes clear.
Interest on debt: The cost of borrowing the money to finance the wars. This represents a pure deadweight loss to the economy—money spent not on goods, services, or investments, but simply on the cost of having borrowed money in the past.
The project’s evolving totals—from $6.4 trillion in 2019 to $8 trillion in 2021—reflect the compounding nature of these long-term obligations. They demonstrate that the bill for war continues to grow at an accelerating rate, even as active military operations wind down.
The costs do not end when the soldiers come home; in many ways, that is when the largest bills begin to come due.
The Reconstruction Money Pit
One of the most striking examples of cost escalation was the Iraq reconstruction effort, which became a case study in how ambitious goals can spiral into financial disaster. The initial reconstruction plan, developed in the optimistic early days of the occupation, called for rebuilding Iraq’s infrastructure to be better than it was before the 2003 invasion.
The plan was breathtaking in scope: rebuild the electrical grid, restore oil production to pre-war levels and beyond, construct new water treatment facilities, rebuild schools and hospitals, and create democratic institutions from scratch. The estimated cost: $56 billion over four years.
The reality was far different. By 2014, the United States had spent over $220 billion on reconstruction in Iraq, with disappointing results. Many projects were never completed, others were completed but quickly fell into disrepair, and some were built in areas too dangerous for them to operate effectively.
The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) documented case after case of waste and fraud. A $75 million police academy in Baghdad was built with such poor workmanship that sewage leaked through the ceiling. A $165 million children’s hospital in Basra was never completed despite years of work. A $108 million wastewater treatment plant in Fallujah was built but never became operational because it lacked a reliable source of electricity.
Perhaps most emblematically, the United States spent $3 billion trying to train and equip the Iraqi police, only to see much of that equipment abandoned or captured by ISIS when they swept through Iraq in 2014.
The reconstruction failure wasn’t just about waste—it was about the fundamental impossibility of rebuilding a country while it was still at war. Security costs consumed an enormous portion of reconstruction budgets. Contractors had to hire private security firms, work behind blast walls, and often suspend operations during periods of intense fighting.
More broadly, the reconstruction effort revealed a deep misunderstanding of Iraq’s social and political realities. Projects were often designed by American engineers for American standards, using American contractors who had little understanding of local conditions. The result was infrastructure that was expensive to build, expensive to maintain, and often inappropriate for local needs.
Financed by Debt: The Trillion-Dollar Interest Bill
Perhaps the most significant and least understood financial legacy of the post-9/11 wars is the decision to finance them almost entirely with borrowed money. This historic departure from how the United States has traditionally paid for its conflicts has shifted the primary financial burden onto future generations.
A Historic Shift in War Finance
Throughout American history, major wars were paid for through a combination of increased taxes and the sale of war bonds, methods that required direct and tangible sacrifice from the contemporary population.
During World War II, the top marginal tax rate reached 94%, and the government conducted massive bond drives that engaged ordinary citizens in financing the war effort. These “Victory Bonds” were marketed as patriotic duty, and celebrities like Bob Hope and Bing Crosby toured the country promoting bond sales.
To help pay for the Korean War, President Harry Truman temporarily raised the top marginal income tax rate to 92%. President Lyndon Johnson did likewise for the Vietnam War, raising the top rate to 77%. During World War I and World War II, the government relied on a mix of higher taxes and massive bond drives to fund the efforts.
These financing methods served multiple purposes beyond simply raising revenue. They created a direct connection between the war effort and civilian sacrifice, ensuring that the American people felt the economic impact of military action. This helped maintain democratic accountability—when wars became expensive, the public felt it immediately and could pressure their representatives accordingly.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan shattered this precedent. Instead of raising taxes, the Bush administration enacted significant tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, particularly for the wealthiest Americans. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 reduced tax rates across the board, while the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 reduced taxes on capital gains and dividends.
These tax cuts were projected to reduce federal revenues by $1.35 trillion and $350 billion respectively over ten years. Combined with increased spending on war and homeland security, this created massive budget deficits that had to be financed through borrowing.
With revenues falling and spending on war and homeland security soaring, the government turned to borrowing on an unprecedented scale. For the first time in its history, the United States financed a major, prolonged conflict almost entirely through debt.
This decision was inextricably linked to the use of opaque “emergency” funding. Together, they formed a powerful political strategy. By avoiding tax hikes and war bond drives, the government shielded the American public from the immediate financial realities of the conflict, preventing “sticker shock” that might have eroded public support.
This strategy made it possible to wage a multi-trillion-dollar war with minimal contemporary political or financial friction, effectively hiding the true cost within the rapidly expanding national debt.
The contrast with previous conflicts is stark. During World War II, the national debt increased dramatically, but it was paid down relatively quickly in the post-war years through higher taxes and economic growth. The debt from the post-9/11 wars, by contrast, has become a permanent feature of the federal budget, with no clear plan for paying it down.
Calculating the Interest: The Cost of Borrowing
The consequence of this debt-financing strategy is a colossal interest bill. The money borrowed for the wars must be paid back with interest, and these payments will continue for as long as the debt remains outstanding.
A 2020 analysis by the Costs of War Project provides a stunning calculation: the roughly $2 trillion in direct war spending appropriated by Congress through 2019 had already generated an estimated $925 billion in interest payments.
To put this in perspective, the interest payments alone exceed the entire GDP of countries like Turkey or Taiwan. They represent more than the United States spends annually on education, transportation, and housing combined.
The projections for the future are even more staggering. Researchers estimate that even if all war-related spending had ceased in 2019, the interest on the debt already accumulated is forecast to reach over $2 trillion by 2030 and could top $6.5 trillion by 2050.
Another conservative estimate from 2017 projected that interest costs could reach as high as $8 trillion by 2056 unless the U.S. fundamentally changes how it pays for wars.
These calculations assume relatively modest interest rates. If interest rates rise significantly—as they have begun to do in recent years—the total interest burden could be even higher. Each percentage point increase in average interest rates adds billions to the annual interest bill.
These are not payments for new roads, schools, or scientific research; they are purely the cost of borrowing. A significant portion of this debt is held by foreign entities—about 40% of the post-9/11 war debt was financed by foreign borrowing—meaning that billions of dollars in interest payments flow out of the U.S. economy each year.
China and Japan are among the largest holders of U.S. debt, meaning that American taxpayers are effectively sending billions of dollars annually to foreign governments as a result of the decision to finance the wars through borrowing rather than taxation.
The Crowding Out Effect
The massive war debt has created what economists call a “crowding out” effect, where government borrowing competes with private investment for available capital. When the government borrows heavily, it can drive up interest rates for everyone else, making it more expensive for businesses to invest and expand, and for families to buy homes or start businesses.
This effect is difficult to quantify precisely, but economic research suggests that high levels of government debt can reduce long-term economic growth by anywhere from 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points annually. Over decades, this compounds into a significant reduction in overall economic prosperity.
The debt has also limited the government’s fiscal flexibility. High debt levels make it more difficult for the government to respond to future crises with aggressive fiscal policy. During the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns about the national debt constrained the government’s response, even though more aggressive action might have been economically beneficial.
The Burden on Future Generations
The war debt is now a structural and permanent feature of the U.S. federal budget, representing a direct transfer of the cost of the post-9/11 conflicts to today’s children and future generations.
This massive, mandatory spending on interest payments creates what Senator Jack Reed termed a “huge fiscal drag.” It “squeezes” the discretionary budget, limiting the funds available for domestic priorities like transportation, environmental protection, education, and healthcare.
In fiscal year 2022, the United States spent approximately $475 billion on interest payments on the national debt—more than it spent on veterans’ affairs, education, or transportation. Much of this interest burden can be directly traced to the post-9/11 wars.
Furthermore, the high national debt, significantly exacerbated by war spending, has become a central argument for austerity measures and budget cuts, constraining the government’s ability to respond to future crises, whether economic downturns or pandemics, with robust fiscal action.
The war of the 2000s is thus directly limiting America’s economic and policy flexibility in the 2020s and for decades beyond. The hidden cost of the war debt is not just the astronomical interest payments, but the permanent constraint it places on the nation’s future.
Young Americans today will spend their entire working lives paying for wars that were launched when many of them were children or not yet born. A child born in 2003, the year of the Iraq invasion, will be paying interest on war debt well into their 60s.
The Human Ledger: Lives Lost and Shattered
Beyond the trillions of dollars, the most profound costs of the post-9/11 wars are measured in human lives—lives lost on the battlefield, lives taken by suicide back home, lives shattered by physical and psychological wounds, and the millions of civilian lives destroyed in the war zones.
This human ledger reveals that for the United States, the deadliest and most costly consequences of war unfold long after the fighting stops.
The Skyrocketing Cost of Veterans’ Care
The single largest long-term financial obligation from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will be the cost of providing medical care and disability benefits to the 4 million Americans who served.
According to research from Harvard University’s Linda Bilmes, these costs are projected to reach between $2.2 trillion and $2.5 trillion by the year 2050. This figure is more than double her own earlier projections, a stark illustration of how these obligations continue to grow as the veteran population ages and the full scope of their injuries becomes clear.
Several factors drive these unprecedented costs. Compared to previous conflicts, post-9/11 veterans experienced more frequent and longer deployments. The average soldier deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan multiple times, with some completing four, five, or even more deployments. This repeated exposure to combat stress and trauma has had cumulative effects on mental and physical health.
Advances in battlefield medicine and body armor meant that service members survived injuries that would have been fatal in past wars, but they often returned with more severe and complex disabilities. The survival rate for wounded soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan was over 90%, compared to about 76% in Vietnam. This medical success created a new challenge: caring for veterans with complex, multiple injuries requiring lifelong care.
Consequently, this cohort of veterans is filing for disability benefits at much higher rates than previous generations. More than 40% of those who served in Iraq and Afghanistan have already been approved for lifetime disability benefits, compared to about 25% of Vietnam veterans.
The financial impact is already visible. Between FY2001 and FY2020, federal spending on veterans’ care doubled as a share of the U.S. budget, rising from 2.4% to 4.9%, even as the total number of living veterans from all U.S. wars declined from 25.3 million to 18.5 million.
This trend shows no sign of slowing. The Department of Veterans Affairs projects that its budget will need to continue growing rapidly for the next several decades as post-9/11 veterans age and develop more health problems.
The costs of caring for veterans historically do not peak until 30 to 40 years after a conflict ends, as the health needs of the aging population increase. The peak costs for Vietnam veterans occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, decades after the end of that conflict. The bills for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will continue to come due for the next half-century.
The Signature Injuries: TBI and PTSD
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were characterized by the widespread use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which produced a high incidence of two particular conditions: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).
TBI has been called a “signature injury” of these conflicts. Between 2000 and the first quarter of 2023, the Department of Defense diagnosed nearly 480,000 service members with a TBI.
The prevalence of TBI in these conflicts was unprecedented. Unlike previous wars where most injuries were from bullets or shrapnel, the extensive use of IEDs created a new type of battlefield injury. The blast waves from these explosions could cause brain injuries even when soldiers were protected by body armor and helmets.
Many of these brain injuries were initially classified as “mild,” leading to the misleading term “mild TBI.” However, research has shown that even “mild” brain injuries can have profound and lasting effects, including problems with memory, concentration, decision-making, and emotional regulation.
These two conditions are deeply intertwined. Research shows that up to half of all service members who sustain a combat-related mild TBI also meet the diagnostic criteria for PTSD.
The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reports that about 15 out of every 100 veterans who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) have been diagnosed with PTSD, and it estimates that as many as 29% will experience the condition at some point in their lives.
These are not temporary conditions; they are chronic illnesses linked to higher long-term rates of depression, chronic pain, unemployment, substance abuse, and suicide.
The economic impact of these conditions extends beyond medical care. Veterans with PTSD and TBI often struggle to maintain employment, leading to lost productivity and reduced tax revenues. They may require vocational rehabilitation, disability payments, and social services throughout their lives.
A RAND Corporation study estimated that the total economic cost of PTSD and TBI among post-9/11 veterans could reach $6.2 billion over two years alone, including both direct medical costs and indirect costs like lost productivity.
The Families’ Hidden Wounds
The impact of these wars extends far beyond the service members themselves to their families. Military families experienced unprecedented stress during the post-9/11 conflicts, with repeated deployments separating parents from children and spouses from each other for months or years at a time.
The divorce rate among military couples spiked during the height of the conflicts. For the Army, the divorce rate increased from 3.1% in 2003 to 4.2% in 2009. Among female soldiers, the divorce rate was even higher, reaching 7.2% in 2009.
Military children also bore significant costs. A Department of Defense study found that children of deployed parents were more likely to experience anxiety, depression, and behavioral problems. Academic performance often suffered, and many military children required counseling and other support services.
The suicide rate among military spouses increased by 25% between 2005 and 2009, according to Pentagon data. The stress of multiple deployments, combined with the challenges of single parenting and constant worry about their spouse’s safety, took a devastating toll on military families.
These family impacts represent another hidden cost of war—one that is difficult to quantify in dollar terms but has profound effects on American society. The children of military families who grew up during these conflicts carry the psychological effects into adulthood, potentially affecting their own families and careers.
The Veteran Suicide Crisis
The most devastating human cost for the United States is a quiet epidemic that has unfolded far from the battlefield. According to a 2021 report from the Costs of War Project, an estimated 30,177 active-duty personnel and veterans of the post-9/11 wars have died by suicide.
This figure is more than four times the 7,057 U.S. service members killed in combat operations during the same period.
The suicide rate among veterans is over 57% higher than that of their non-veteran peers. For the post-9/11 cohort specifically, the rate of suicide increased more than tenfold between 2006 and 2020.
This crisis is directly linked to the signature injuries of the wars. VA research shows that veterans with a history of TBI have suicide rates 56% higher than veterans without TBI and are more than twice as likely to die by suicide.
The numbers are particularly alarming among young veterans. Veterans aged 18-34 have suicide rates that are 26% higher than their civilian counterparts. For female veterans in this age group, the rate is 2.4 times higher than civilian women of the same age.
This data reveals a fundamental shift in the lethality of war for the United States. While modern medicine excels at saving lives on the battlefield, the psychological and neurological wounds inflicted by prolonged exposure to counter-insurgency warfare, combined with a difficult transition back to civilian life, have created a delayed-action crisis that claims far more lives at home than the enemy ever did abroad.
The suicide crisis has also had ripple effects throughout American society. Each veteran suicide affects an estimated 135 people—family members, friends, and community members. This means that the veteran suicide epidemic has directly impacted millions of Americans, contributing to what researchers call “suicide contagion” in communities with high veteran populations.
The economic costs of veteran suicide are also substantial. The Centers for Disease Control estimates that each suicide costs society approximately $1.3 million in lost productivity, medical costs, and other factors. Applied to veteran suicides, this suggests that the economic cost of post-9/11 veteran suicides exceeds $39 billion.
Inadequate Support Systems
The veteran suicide crisis has been exacerbated by inadequate support systems within the VA and in civilian communities. Despite significant increases in VA funding for mental health services, many veterans face long wait times for appointments, bureaucratic obstacles to care, and stigma around seeking help.
A 2014 scandal revealed that VA medical centers had been manipulating wait time data to hide delays in care, with some veterans waiting months to see doctors while their cases were reported as meeting VA guidelines for timely care. While reforms have been implemented since then, problems persist.
Many veterans also fall through the cracks of the system. Veterans who received “other than honorable” discharges—often due to behavioral problems related to PTSD or TBI—are typically ineligible for VA benefits, even though their problems may be directly related to their military service.
The VA has also struggled to adapt to the specific needs of post-9/11 veterans. Traditional PTSD treatments were developed for veterans of previous conflicts and don’t always work as well for veterans who experienced the unique stresses of counter-insurgency warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Uncounted: Civilian Deaths and Displacement
The human toll extends far beyond American service members. The Costs of War Project has undertaken the most comprehensive effort to quantify the wars’ impact on the populations in the war zones, and the numbers are staggering.
Their research estimates that between 905,000 and 940,000 people have been directly killed as a result of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen. This total includes civilians, opposition fighters, local police and military forces, U.S. military members, journalists, and humanitarian workers.
However, direct deaths from violence are only a fraction of the total human catastrophe. The project also calculates “indirect deaths”—fatalities caused by the reverberating effects of war, such as the destruction of hospitals, water and sanitation systems, and the loss of access to food. These indirect deaths are estimated at 3.6 to 3.8 million.
This reveals that the most lethal weapon of modern war is often not a bomb or a bullet, but the systemic collapse of the society it targets. The destruction of infrastructure is a primary cause of death long after the fighting subsides.
In Iraq, for example, the destruction of water treatment plants and electrical grids led to outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, and other diseases. Malnutrition rates among children soared as food distribution systems collapsed. Cancer rates increased dramatically, possibly due to contamination from munitions containing depleted uranium.
The indirect death toll is particularly high among vulnerable populations—children, the elderly, and those with chronic diseases who depend on functioning healthcare systems. A 2013 study published in PLOS Medicine estimated that child mortality in Iraq increased by 37% during the first four years after the invasion.
Combined, the total death toll of the post-9/11 wars is estimated to be at least 4.5 to 4.7 million people, a figure the researchers note is likely a vast undercount.
In addition to the deaths, the wars have caused one of the largest human displacements in recent history, forcing an estimated 38 million people from their homes and causing incalculable harm to individuals, families, and entire nations.
The displacement crisis has created massive refugee populations that continue to strain resources in neighboring countries and Europe. Jordan hosts over 650,000 Syrian refugees, while Lebanon hosts over 1.5 million—representing about 25% of Lebanon’s total population. Turkey hosts over 3.6 million Syrian refugees, the largest refugee population in the world.
These refugee populations have created political tensions and economic strains that continue to affect regional stability. The European refugee crisis of 2015-2016, which saw over a million asylum seekers arrive in Europe, was largely driven by conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan.
| Metric | Number |
|---|---|
| U.S. Service Members Killed in Post-9/11 Combat Operations | ~7,057 |
| U.S. Post-9/11 Veterans & Service Members Died by Suicide | ~30,177 |
| Total Direct Deaths (All Parties in War Zones) | 905,000 – 940,000 |
| Total Indirect Deaths (From War’s Reverberating Effects) | 3.6 – 3.8 million |
| Total Estimated Death Toll (Direct + Indirect) | 4.5 – 4.7 million |
| People Displaced by Post-9/11 Wars | 38 million |
A Toxic Legacy: Environmental Costs
The long-term costs of war are also etched into the environment, creating a toxic legacy that harms the health of both American veterans and local civilian populations for generations. From massive greenhouse gas emissions to the contamination of land and water, the environmental footprint of military operations is a significant and often overlooked consequence of conflict.
The Military’s Carbon Footprint
The U.S. Department of Defense is the world’s single largest institutional consumer of petroleum and, consequently, one of the top greenhouse gas emitters globally.
The high-tempo operations in Iraq and Afghanistan relied on a vast logistical chain of jets, helicopters, tanks, and armored vehicles that consume fossil fuels at an extremely high rate. A single F-16 fighter jet burns about 1,600 gallons of fuel per hour of flight. An M1 Abrams tank gets less than one mile per gallon and requires constant refueling during operations.
The logistics of keeping these vehicles fueled in remote locations added enormously to the carbon footprint. Fuel convoys were frequent targets for insurgent attacks, leading to the development of heavily armored fuel trucks that consumed even more fuel to transport fuel. In some cases, it took eight gallons of fuel to deliver one gallon to forward operating bases.
A 2019 study by researchers at Brown University estimated that the Pentagon’s greenhouse gas emissions from 2001 to 2017 totaled over 1.2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent. This exceeds the annual emissions of most countries and represents about 80% of all federal government emissions.
Beyond their contribution to climate change, these vehicles release tons of pollutants, including carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide, which degrade local air quality in war zones.
The military’s carbon footprint extends beyond direct operations to include the massive infrastructure built to support the wars. The construction of military bases, airfields, and supply depots required enormous amounts of concrete, steel, and other materials, all of which have significant carbon footprints.
Burn Pits: A “Signature” Exposure
One of the most damaging environmental practices of the post-9/11 wars was the use of massive, open-air burn pits to dispose of waste on military bases. At major installations like Joint Base Balad in Iraq, the burn pit spanned nearly ten acres, operating 24 hours a day.
Into these pits went every conceivable type of waste: plastics, styrofoam, medical and human waste, metal cans, munitions, petroleum products, batteries, paint, solvents, tires, and even entire broken-down vehicles. Items that should have been disposed of through specialized hazardous waste procedures were simply thrown into the fires.
The scope of burn pit operations was enormous. At its peak, the Balad burn pit consumed about 100-200 tons of waste per day. Similar operations were conducted at hundreds of bases across Iraq and Afghanistan, creating a network of toxic waste incineration sites throughout both countries.
The smoke from these pits released a toxic cocktail of particulates, dioxins, volatile organic compounds, and carcinogens into the air, contaminating the air, soil, and groundwater for miles around. Service members living and working on these bases were exposed to these fumes daily, often for months at a time.
This exposure has been linked to a host of long-term health problems. A landmark 2024 study published in JAMA Network Open, which examined the health records of nearly half a million veterans, found that prolonged deployment to bases with burn pits was associated with a modestly increased risk of developing asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension, and ischemic stroke.
But this study likely understates the true health impact. Many of the health effects of toxic exposure, particularly cancers, may not appear for decades after exposure. Veterans groups argue that the full health consequences of burn pit exposure are only beginning to be understood.
For years, veterans faced an uphill battle to get the VA to recognize the link between their illnesses and these toxic exposures. The military and the VA initially denied that burn pits posed significant health risks, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
This struggle culminated in the passage of the PACT Act in 2022, which finally established a direct service connection for a long list of “presumptive conditions.”
The VA now presumes that veterans who served in specified locations and developed certain illnesses were affected by toxic exposures. This list includes dozens of respiratory illnesses and cancers, such as brain cancer, kidney cancer, pancreatic cancer, lymphoma, melanoma, chronic bronchitis, and COPD.
The PACT Act is estimated to cost the VA $280 billion over ten years, representing one of the largest expansions of veterans’ benefits in history. This massive cost is a direct result of the military’s environmental practices during the wars.
The legislative battle to pass the PACT Act was, in itself, a reflection of the hidden costs of war. The eventual acknowledgment of this liability is a key reason why cost estimates for long-term veterans’ care have continued to climb.
Water Contamination and Toxic Waste
Beyond burn pits, military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan created numerous other sources of environmental contamination. Military bases often lacked proper waste treatment facilities, leading to contamination of local water supplies.
At some bases, fuel spills contaminated groundwater that local communities depended on for drinking water. Improper disposal of chemicals, batteries, and other hazardous materials created long-term pollution problems that persist years after the bases were abandoned.
The use of military equipment also introduced new toxins into the environment. Depleted uranium, used in certain types of ammunition, created radioactive contamination in areas where it was used extensively. While the Pentagon maintains that depleted uranium poses minimal health risks, studies in Iraq have found elevated levels of radiation and increased rates of birth defects in areas where it was used.
Military vehicles also leaked oil, hydraulic fluid, and other chemicals into soil and water. The sheer number of vehicles deployed—at the height of the surge, there were over 100,000 military vehicles in Iraq alone—meant that even small leaks per vehicle added up to significant environmental contamination.
Contaminated Lands and Unexploded Ordnance
The environmental damage extends to the very land where the fighting took place. Munitions used in combat, including bombs and artillery shells, can contain toxic substances like heavy metals and depleted uranium, which contaminate soil and water sources long after the conflict ends.
This contamination creates a dual, intergenerational health crisis. It affects the veterans who were exposed during their service, leading to a massive long-term financial liability for the VA. It also devastates local civilian populations, who must live with the consequences.
In Fallujah, Iraq, a city that saw intense fighting during two major battles in 2004, researchers have documented a 17-fold increase in birth anomalies, which have been linked to the environmental toxins left behind by bombardments. Studies have found elevated levels of lead, mercury, and other toxic metals in the environment.
Cancer rates in Fallujah have also increased dramatically. A 2010 study found that the incidence of cancer in Fallujah was higher than in populations exposed to atomic weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Furthermore, the landscape of former war zones remains littered with unexploded ordnance (UXO) and landmines. These explosive remnants of war continue to maim and kill civilians, particularly children, for years and even decades after the fighting has stopped, rendering agricultural land unusable and making daily life a hazardous gamble.
In Afghanistan, decades of conflict have left the country one of the most heavily mined in the world. The UN estimates that there are over 600,000 pieces of unexploded ordnance scattered across the country. Every year, hundreds of Afghans, mostly children, are killed or injured by these remnants of war.
The economic costs of dealing with UXO are also substantial. Clearing landmines and unexploded ordnance is extremely expensive and time-consuming. In Iraq, the government estimates it will take decades and billions of dollars to clear all the unexploded ordnance from the conflicts.
Geopolitical Fallout: A Less Stable World
The strategic consequences of the Iraq War and the broader post-9/11 conflicts represent another profound, long-term cost. Far from creating a more stable and democratic Middle East, the war destabilized the region, empowered U.S. adversaries, and damaged American credibility and influence on the world stage.
The geopolitical fallout has, in many ways, created a self-perpetuating cycle of conflict and cost that continues to this day.
Destabilizing a Region, Empowering Adversaries
According to analyses from leading foreign policy institutions like the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Brookings Institution, the initial decisions made during the occupation of Iraq were catastrophic.
The abrupt disbanding of the entire Iraqi army and the de-Ba’athification policy, which purged experienced administrators from government, created a massive security and governance vacuum. These decisions, made in the first months of the occupation, had consequences that reverberated for decades.
The disbanding of the Iraqi army put over 400,000 trained soldiers out of work overnight, many of whom still had access to weapons and military equipment. Rather than being incorporated into a new Iraqi security force, these men became a ready-made insurgency against the occupation.
The de-Ba’athification policy, modeled after the de-Nazification of Germany after World War II, removed not just senior Ba’ath Party officials but tens of thousands of teachers, engineers, doctors, and civil servants who were required to join the party to advance their careers under Saddam Hussein. This gutted Iraq’s administrative capacity just when the country needed experienced people most.
This void was quickly filled by a lethal insurgency and sectarian militias, plunging the country into a brutal civil war. At its height in 2006-2007, Iraq was experiencing dozens of car bombings, assassinations, and sectarian killings every day.
This chaos provided fertile ground for extremist groups. Al-Qaeda in Iraq, a group that had no presence in the country before the 2003 invasion, flourished in the post-war environment and later morphed into the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
The rise of ISIS, which seized control of nearly a third of Iraq’s territory by 2014, necessitated a new U.S. military intervention, Operation Inherent Resolve, adding billions more to the war’s price tag. This demonstrates how the initial conflict triggered a cascade of secondary conflicts, each with its own costs in blood and treasure.
ISIS’s territorial control at its peak included major Iraqi cities like Mosul and Fallujah, as well as large swaths of Syria. The group’s brutality—including mass executions, sexual slavery, and public beheadings—shocked the world and required a massive international military response to defeat.
The cost of fighting ISIS has been substantial. Operation Inherent Resolve has cost over $18 billion since 2014, according to Pentagon estimates. This doesn’t include the costs borne by other coalition members or the humanitarian costs of dealing with millions of refugees displaced by ISIS.
Simultaneously, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-led regime removed a key regional counterweight to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The subsequent rise of a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad dramatically increased Iran’s political and military influence in Iraq and across the Middle East, a major strategic setback for the United States and its regional allies.
Iran now exercises enormous influence over Iraqi politics through Shia political parties and militias that it funds and arms. Iranian-backed militias control large portions of Iraqi territory and have been accused of assassinating Iraqi political figures who oppose Iranian influence.
This Iranian influence extends beyond Iraq to Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, where Iran-backed groups have become major players in regional conflicts. The “Shia Crescent” of Iranian influence that now stretches from Iran to the Mediterranean is partly a consequence of the power vacuum created by the Iraq War.
The Syria Spillover
The destabilization of Iraq contributed directly to the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 and has claimed over 500,000 lives. ISIS used its base in Iraq to expand into Syria, while Iranian-backed militias honed their skills in Iraq before deploying to Syria to support the Assad regime.
The Syrian conflict has created its own massive costs. The United States has spent over $15 billion on humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees and displaced persons. Military operations against ISIS in Syria have cost billions more.
The refugee crisis from Syria has destabilized neighboring countries and contributed to political upheaval in Europe. The arrival of over a million asylum seekers in Europe in 2015-2016 contributed to the rise of anti-immigrant political parties and may have influenced the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom.
Regional Arms Race
The chaos and Iranian expansion resulting from the Iraq War has triggered a regional arms race as traditional U.S. allies seek to counter Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia has dramatically increased its military spending, much of it on U.S. weapons systems.
The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has turned into proxy conflicts across the region. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels since 2015 in a conflict that has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The United States has been drawn into this proxy conflict, providing intelligence, refueling, and weapons to the Saudi-led coalition. This represents another ongoing cost of the regional destabilization that began with the Iraq War.
The High Price of Corruption
The U.S.-led reconstruction effort, intended to rebuild Iraq, instead unleashed what the Brookings Institution has called a “thirst for graft and easy money” that entrenched systemic corruption at every level of the Iraqi state.
From 2003 to 2014, more than $220 billion was spent on reconstruction, but a significant portion was lost to waste, fraud, and abuse by U.S. personnel, international contractors, and Iraqi officials. The Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) estimated that at least $8 billion was “outright wasted.”
But the actual losses were likely much higher. SIGIR could only investigate cases where it had jurisdiction, and much of the corruption occurred in areas beyond its reach. Iraqi officials estimate that corruption may have consumed as much as $150 billion of reconstruction funds.
Some examples of waste and corruption documented by SIGIR:
- $36 million spent on a police academy that was so poorly built that it leaked sewage from the ceiling
- $165 million for a children’s hospital in Basra that was never completed
- $108 million for a wastewater treatment plant in Fallujah that was built but never became operational
- $60 million for ghost police stations that existed only on paper
This legacy of corruption continues to cripple Iraq. It has hollowed out public institutions, preventing the government from providing basic services like reliable electricity, clean water, and healthcare. This failure has fueled years of mass public protests, particularly among Iraq’s large youth population, and has deeply eroded faith in the democratic experiment the U.S. sought to build.
The corruption also had strategic consequences. Iraqi military units that existed only on paper or were equipped with substandard equipment collapsed quickly when ISIS attacked in 2014. Billions of dollars worth of U.S.-provided military equipment fell into ISIS hands, including tanks, artillery, and small arms.
The Toll on U.S. Credibility and Democracy
The war’s impact was not confined to the Middle East; it had profound effects at home. The conflict was launched on the premise that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD), a claim that proved to be false.
This failure severely damaged U.S. credibility on the world stage and led to what the CFR describes as a “Vietnam era–like erosion of public confidence” in government institutions.
The WMD intelligence failure was not a minor mistake but a comprehensive breakdown of the intelligence system. Despite the certainty expressed by top officials, no significant WMD stockpiles were ever found in Iraq. Post-war investigations revealed that much of the intelligence was based on questionable sources and that dissenting views within the intelligence community were suppressed.
The immense costs, the long duration of the conflict, and the failure to achieve stated objectives fostered deep-seated skepticism toward foreign intervention among the American public, contributing to a resurgence of isolationist sentiment.
Public opinion polls show a dramatic shift in American attitudes toward military intervention following the Iraq War. Support for military action abroad declined significantly, and “war fatigue” became a major factor in American politics.
This shift in public opinion has had strategic consequences, limiting America’s ability to respond to international crises and encouraging adversaries who believe the United States lacks the will for sustained military engagement.
Moreover, the lack of any formal, high-level reckoning in the United States for the war’s flawed intelligence and catastrophic planning failures stands in stark contrast to the comprehensive inquiries held in allied nations like the United Kingdom.
The UK’s Chilcot Inquiry, which published its final report in 2016, provided a detailed and damning assessment of the decision to invade Iraq and the conduct of the war. No comparable inquiry has been conducted in the United States.
This absence of accountability has, as some analysts argue, contributed to a “culture of brazen, arrogant mendacity that infects American politics.” The failure in Iraq was not simply a military or political miscalculation; it was a profound failure of institutional imagination and planning, the consequences of which are still being paid.
Impact on International Alliances
The Iraq War also strained America’s relationships with key allies. Many traditional allies, including France, Germany, and Canada, opposed the invasion and refused to participate in the “Coalition of the Willing.”
These divisions within NATO and other alliance structures weakened multilateral institutions and made it more difficult for the United States to build coalitions for other international challenges.
The war also damaged America’s standing in international law. The invasion was conducted without explicit UN Security Council authorization, leading many international lawyers to argue that it violated international law. This precedent has been cited by other countries, including Russia, to justify their own military interventions.
The Opportunity Cost: Roads Not Taken
The final category of hidden costs is perhaps the most difficult to quantify, yet it affects every American: the opportunity cost. The trillions of dollars spent on war represent trillions of dollars that were not invested in domestic priorities.
This choice was not just a matter of policy preference; it was a decision that directly impacted the economic well-being and development of the United States.
Trillions for War, But What About America?
In economics, an “opportunity cost” is the value of the next-best alternative that was given up when making a choice. For the post-9/11 wars, the opportunity cost is staggering. The money spent on military operations, reconstruction in Iraq, and interest on war debt could have been used to address pressing needs at home.
Analyses from think tanks like the Center for American Progress have illustrated the trade-offs in concrete terms. For a fraction of the cost of the Iraq War, the United States could have fully funded programs to secure all of its ports against terrorist attack, equip all commercial airliners with defenses against shoulder-fired missiles, hire 100,000 more police officers for community policing, or secure all of the world’s vulnerable nuclear materials to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.
The $2.89 trillion projected cost of the Iraq War by 2050 could have funded:
- Complete rebuilding of America’s crumbling infrastructure, including roads, bridges, airports, and transit systems
- Universal pre-K education for all American children for 58 years
- The entire National Science Foundation budget for 98 years
- Tuition-free college for 43 million students over four years
- Installation of solar panels on every suitable rooftop in America
The immense spending on war inevitably “squeezed” funding for domestic programs in transportation, environmental protection, and education, leading to a decade of underinvestment in America’s own future.
The Infrastructure Deficit
Perhaps nowhere is the opportunity cost more visible than in America’s crumbling infrastructure. While the United States was spending trillions building roads, bridges, and electrical systems in Iraq and Afghanistan, American infrastructure was falling into disrepair.
The American Society of Civil Engineers gives U.S. infrastructure an overall grade of C-, estimating that it would take $2.6 trillion over ten years to bring it up to acceptable standards. This is remarkably close to the amount spent on the Iraq War alone.
The infrastructure deficit has real economic consequences. Poor roads and bridges increase transportation costs for businesses. Unreliable electrical grids reduce productivity and increase energy costs. Aging water systems lead to public health crises like the one in Flint, Michigan.
A 2016 study by the Federal Highway Administration found that poor road conditions cost the average American driver $516 per year in additional vehicle operating costs. Multiply that by America’s 220 million drivers, and poor roads alone cost the economy over $100 billion annually.
The irony is particularly acute given that much of the military spending went toward building infrastructure in Iraq and Afghanistan that was often destroyed by insurgents or fell into disrepair after U.S. forces left.
The Education Gap
Education is another area where the opportunity cost of war spending is particularly stark. While the United States was spending hundreds of billions on military operations, American schools were struggling with budget cuts and deteriorating facilities.
The $8 trillion total cost of the post-9/11 wars could have funded the entire K-12 education system for approximately 13 years. Instead, many school districts were forced to cut programs, lay off teachers, and defer maintenance on school buildings.
International education rankings show the consequences of this underinvestment. In 2000, the United States ranked 18th in math, 14th in reading, and 18th in science among developed countries. By 2018, those rankings had fallen to 38th in math, 24th in reading, and 25th in science.
The long-term economic consequences of this educational decline are profound. A less educated workforce is less productive and less competitive in the global economy. Studies suggest that improving educational outcomes could increase GDP growth by 0.5-1.0 percentage points annually.
The Job Creation Deficit
The most powerful illustration of this opportunity cost comes from economic analysis of job creation. While military spending creates jobs in the defense industry and its supply chains, research from the Costs of War Project and the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows that it is one of the least efficient forms of government spending for job creation.
The data is clear: for every $1 million of spending, the military creates approximately 6.9 jobs. In stark contrast, that same $1 million would create 9.8 jobs if invested in clean energy or infrastructure, 14.3 jobs in healthcare, and an incredible 19.2 jobs in elementary and secondary education.
This is because sectors like education and healthcare are highly labor-intensive, meaning more of the money goes directly to paying salaries for teachers, nurses, and support staff, while defense spending is often highly capital-intensive, going toward expensive weapons systems.
The total lost opportunity for the American workforce is immense. The roughly $230 billion spent annually on the wars during their peak supported about 1.5 million defense-related jobs. Had that same money been invested in other sectors, it could have created over 3 million jobs in healthcare or over 4 million jobs in education.
On average, the annual “job opportunity cost” of the wars was about 1.3 million American jobs.
This represents millions of Americans who could have been working as teachers, nurses, construction workers, and researchers instead of building weapons systems that were used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The political narrative of “supporting the troops” through massive defense budgets often obscured the reality that this same spending could have supported millions more American workers and their families if allocated differently.
The decision to prioritize war spending was not just a choice of foreign policy, but a choice of a less effective economic engine for domestic prosperity.
The Innovation Deficit
Another significant opportunity cost was the diversion of research and development resources toward military applications rather than civilian innovation. The Pentagon became one of the largest sources of R&D funding, but much of this research was focused on immediate military needs rather than long-term technological advancement.
During the war years, countries like South Korea, China, and Germany made massive investments in clean energy technology, high-speed rail, and other advanced technologies. The United States, focused on military technology, fell behind in many civilian technology sectors.
For example, while the United States was developing better armor for military vehicles, China was investing heavily in electric vehicle technology and battery research. Today, China dominates the global market for electric vehicle batteries, a technology that will be crucial for addressing climate change.
The opportunity cost extends to human capital as well. Many of America’s brightest engineers and scientists spent the war years developing military technology rather than working on civilian innovations that could have benefited society more broadly.
Healthcare and Social Programs
The opportunity cost in healthcare is particularly striking given the long-term health consequences of the wars themselves. While spending trillions on military operations, the United States continued to lag behind other developed countries in healthcare outcomes and access.
The $8 trillion spent on the post-9/11 wars could have funded Medicare for All for approximately 4-5 years, according to various estimates. Instead, the United States remains the only developed country without universal healthcare coverage.
The lack of investment in public health infrastructure was particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the United States struggled to respond effectively despite having the world’s largest military.
Social programs also suffered from the opportunity cost of war spending. Programs like Social Security, unemployment insurance, and food assistance faced budget pressures partly because so much federal spending was devoted to military operations.
| Spending Sector | Jobs Created per $1 Million Spent | Percentage More Jobs than Military |
|---|---|---|
| Military | 6.9 | – |
| Clean Energy (Average) | 9.8 | +42% |
| Infrastructure | 9.8 | +42% |
| Healthcare | 14.3 | +107% |
| Education (Elem. & Sec.) | 19.2 | +178% |
The Psychological and Social Costs
Beyond the quantifiable economic and human costs, the post-9/11 wars have taken a psychological and social toll on American society that is difficult to measure but profoundly important.
The Militarization of American Society
One consequence of the prolonged conflicts has been the increasing militarization of American civilian institutions. Local police departments have received billions of dollars worth of surplus military equipment through programs like the 1033 Program, which transfers excess military gear to civilian law enforcement.
Since 1997, the program has transferred over $7.4 billion worth of equipment, including armored vehicles, aircraft, weapons, and other military-grade gear. The pace of transfers accelerated during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as the military accumulated vast quantities of equipment.
This militarization of policing has been linked to increased police violence and a more adversarial relationship between law enforcement and communities. Studies have found that police departments that receive military equipment are more likely to use force against civilians.
The wars have also contributed to a culture that valorizes military solutions to complex problems. The phrase “War on…” has been applied to everything from drugs to poverty to COVID-19, reflecting a mindset that sees military-style approaches as the default response to social challenges.
The All-Volunteer Force and Civilian-Military Divide
The use of an all-volunteer military for the post-9/11 conflicts has created an unprecedented disconnect between the military and civilian society. Less than 1% of Americans have served in Iraq or Afghanistan, meaning that the vast majority of the population has no direct connection to the wars.
This has allowed the conflicts to continue for decades without significant domestic political pressure for their conclusion. Unlike during the Vietnam War, when the draft meant that families across all social classes faced the possibility of their children being sent to war, the post-9/11 conflicts have been fought primarily by working-class volunteers.
The result has been what some scholars call a “warrior caste”—a small group of families that provides a disproportionate share of military personnel while the rest of society remains largely disconnected from the conflicts.
This divide has political consequences. Veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan often feel alienated from a civilian society that doesn’t understand their experiences. Meanwhile, civilians can support or oppose the wars in abstract terms without feeling their direct consequences.
The Normalization of Endless War
Perhaps most significantly, the post-9/11 conflicts have normalized the idea of perpetual warfare in American political culture. The United States has now been at war continuously for over two decades, creating a generation of Americans who have never known peace.
This normalization has profound implications for democratic governance. War powers that were intended to be temporary have become permanent features of the presidency. Surveillance programs justified by wartime necessity have become routine parts of government operations.
The psychological impact on American society of living in a permanent state of war is difficult to quantify but likely significant. Studies have shown that societies at war experience higher levels of anxiety, depression, and social fragmentation.
The International Costs: Damaged Institutions and Lost Leadership
The post-9/11 wars have also imposed costs on the international system that affect global stability and prosperity.
Weakened International Law
The decision to invade Iraq without explicit UN Security Council authorization set a precedent that has been cited by other countries to justify their own military interventions. Russia cited the Iraq precedent when it invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014.
This erosion of international legal norms makes the world more dangerous and unpredictable. When powerful countries ignore international law, it encourages others to do the same, leading to a more chaotic international system.
Strained Alliance Relationships
The Iraq War created lasting divisions within NATO and other alliance structures. Countries that opposed the war, including France and Germany, have been more skeptical of U.S. leadership on subsequent international issues.
These strained relationships make it more difficult for the United States to build coalitions for addressing global challenges like climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic instability.
Lost Opportunities for Cooperation
The focus on military solutions to international problems has crowded out diplomatic approaches that might have been more effective. The resources devoted to military intervention could have been used for development aid, diplomacy, and other forms of “soft power” that might have created more lasting positive change.
For example, the $220 billion spent on reconstruction in Iraq could have funded massive development programs across the Middle East and other regions that might have addressed some of the root causes of terrorism and instability.
The Price of Not Learning
The comprehensive accounting of the post-9/11 wars reveals costs that dwarf the initial projections by orders of magnitude. The $8 trillion total—with trillions more to come—represents one of the most expensive undertakings in American history, financed almost entirely through debt that will burden future generations for decades.
The human costs are even more staggering. More American veterans and service members have died by suicide than were killed in combat. Millions of civilians have died in the war zones, with tens of millions more displaced from their homes.
The environmental damage will affect public health for generations, while the geopolitical consequences have made the world less stable and America less secure.
Perhaps most importantly, the wars represent a massive opportunity cost for the United States. The resources devoted to military action could have transformed American infrastructure, education, healthcare, and clean energy development, creating millions more jobs and building a more prosperous and resilient society.
The true lesson of this accounting is not that America should never use military force, but that it must honestly confront the full costs of that choice. The gap between the rosy initial projections and the devastating reality reflects a fundamental failure of planning, accountability, and democratic deliberation.
The decision-making process that led to the Iraq War was characterized by groupthink, the suppression of dissenting voices, and an unwillingness to seriously consider worst-case scenarios. Intelligence was cherry-picked to support predetermined conclusions, and cost estimates were deliberately lowballed to maintain political support.
These institutional failures were not aberrations but systemic problems that continue to affect American decision-making today. Until America develops the institutional capacity to accurately assess and publicly debate the true costs of war before embarking on military adventures, it will continue to make choices that impoverish its future in the name of protecting its security.
The post-9/11 wars were supposed to make America safer and more secure. Instead, they have made America more indebted, more divided, and less respected around the world. They have consumed resources that could have addressed the real challenges facing American society—crumbling infrastructure, educational decline, environmental degradation, and economic inequality.
Most tragically, they have cost millions of lives—American and foreign—while failing to achieve their stated objectives. Iraq is not a stable democracy. Afghanistan fell back under Taliban control. Terrorism has not been eliminated but has spread to new regions.
The costs of these wars will continue to accumulate for decades to come. Veterans will need care for the rest of their lives. Interest payments on war debt will consume federal resources that could be used for productive investments. Environmental damage will affect public health for generations.
Perhaps most importantly, the precedent of financing wars through debt while cutting taxes has established a dangerous pattern that makes future military adventures more likely. When the costs of war are hidden and deferred, the political constraints on military action are weakened.
The true cost of the post-9/11 wars is not just the trillions of dollars spent or the millions of lives lost. It is the opportunity cost of what America could have accomplished if it had chosen a different path. It is the cost of the America that might have been.
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