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Our planet’s climate is changing faster than at any point in modern history. As we look ahead to the next ten years, understanding these changes will help us prepare for the future. This article breaks down what scientists predict will happen with our climate in the coming decade, how it might affect communities across America, and what we can do about it.
Temperature Rise: The Warming Trend Continues
Global temperatures have been climbing steadily for decades. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project this trend will continue through the next decade.
How Much Warmer Will It Get?
Climate models predict global temperatures will rise by approximately 0.2°C to 0.4°C (0.36°F to 0.72°F) per decade. This means by 2035, the planet could be around 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than it is today. While this might not sound like much, even small temperature increases can have big impacts on weather patterns, ecosystems, and human communities.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that staying below 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels—a threshold beyond which risks increase significantly—requires immediate and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Without major action, we will likely cross this threshold within the next decade.
Regional Variations: Not All Places Will Warm Equally
Temperature changes won’t be uniform across the United States:
- Arctic and Alaska: These regions will likely warm at twice the global average rate, with winter temperatures rising even faster. The Arctic Council predicts continued rapid sea ice loss and permafrost thaw.
- Southwest: States like Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada can expect more intense heat waves and prolonged dry periods. The U.S. Global Change Research Program projects the Southwest will experience some of the nation’s most pronounced warming.
- Northeast and Great Lakes: These regions will likely see fewer extreme cold events but more frequent heat waves. Winter temperatures may rise faster than summer ones.
- Southeast: While overall warming will occur, the increase might be slightly less pronounced than in other regions. However, the combination of heat and humidity will make heat waves particularly dangerous for human health.
Precipitation Changes: When It Rains, It Pours
Climate change doesn’t just affect temperature—it fundamentally alters precipitation patterns. Over the next decade, Americans can expect significant changes in rainfall and snowfall.
More Intense Rainfall Events
The warming atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7% more for each degree Celsius of warming. This increased moisture means rainfall events will become more intense.
According to the Fourth National Climate Assessment, heavy precipitation events have already increased in frequency and intensity across most of the United States. In the next decade, we can expect:
- Heavy downpours that used to happen once every 20 years may occur every 5-15 years
- When storms do come, they’ll likely dump more water in shorter periods
- More rain falling in winter and spring in the Northern and Midwestern states
- More precipitation falling as rain rather than snow at higher elevations
Regional Drought Concerns
While some areas will get wetter, others face increased drought risk:
- Western States: California, Oregon, and Washington will likely experience more persistent drought conditions, with longer dry seasons and shorter, more intense wet seasons.
- Great Plains: Agricultural regions may face more frequent and intense drought periods, threatening crop production. The National Integrated Drought Information System tracks these trends closely.
- Southwest: Already the driest region in the country, the Southwest will likely see declining annual precipitation, particularly during the spring.
The End of “Normal” Precipitation
The concept of “normal” weather is becoming less useful. Instead of consistent patterns, many regions will experience greater year-to-year variability—extremely wet years followed by extremely dry ones. This “weather whiplash” makes planning for water resources, agriculture, and infrastructure more challenging.
Sea Level Rise: Coastal Communities at Risk
Rising oceans present one of the most direct and visible climate change consequences. The National Ocean Service reports that global sea levels rose about 8-9 inches since 1880, with the rate accelerating in recent decades.
How High Will Waters Rise in the Next Decade?
By 2035, global sea levels are projected to rise by another 3-6 inches (8-15 cm) compared to today’s levels. This might not sound dramatic, but even small increases have significant impacts:
- More frequent “sunny day flooding” in coastal cities like Miami, Charleston, and Norfolk
- Increased erosion of beaches and coastal properties
- Salt water intrusion into freshwater supplies in places like South Florida
- Greater storm surge heights during hurricanes and nor’easters
Most Vulnerable U.S. Regions
Some parts of the American coastline face greater risks than others:
- Gulf Coast: Louisiana and Texas face a double threat—the sea is rising while the land is sinking due to natural subsidence and human activities.
- Eastern Seaboard: From Virginia to Massachusetts, densely populated coastal areas will see increased flooding frequency. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, property values in some coastal communities may begin to decline as flooding risks increase.
- Pacific Islands: Hawaii and U.S. territories like Guam face serious threats from rising seas combined with more intense storms.
Extreme Weather Events: The New Normal
Climate change loads the dice for extreme weather. In the coming decade, Americans will face more frequent and intense extreme events.
Heat Waves: Longer, More Frequent, More Intense
Heat waves—periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks—will become more common across all U.S. regions. The Environmental Protection Agency reports that heat waves are already occurring more often and lasting longer.
By 2035, we can expect:
- Major cities experiencing 20-30 more days above 90°F (32°C) annually than they did in the early 2000s
- More frequent occurrences of multiple days above 100°F (38°C), even in northern states
- Increased nighttime temperatures, which prevent relief from daytime heat
- More frequent and severe droughts as higher temperatures increase evaporation rates
Heat-related illnesses and deaths will likely rise, particularly among vulnerable populations like the elderly, outdoor workers, and those without access to air conditioning.
Hurricanes: Not Necessarily More, But More Dangerous
Climate scientists are still debating whether climate change will increase the total number of hurricanes, but there’s growing agreement that the storms that do form will be more dangerous.
Over the next decade, expect:
- More rapid intensification of storms (quick transformation from weak to strong hurricanes)
- Higher storm surge levels due to sea level rise
- Increased rainfall totals during hurricanes, leading to worse flooding
- Possible expansion of hurricane-prone regions northward along the Atlantic coast
The economic costs will be substantial. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that hurricane damage will increase by billions of dollars annually due to climate change and coastal development.
Wildfires: Longer Seasons, Larger Fires
Western states have already experienced dramatic increases in wildfire activity. The U.S. Forest Service and climate scientists project this trend will continue through the next decade.
By 2035, expect:
- Fire seasons extending 2-3 months longer than historical averages
- Approximately 30-50% more area burned annually compared to the early 2000s
- More frequent “megafires” burning over 100,000 acres
- Greater wildfire risks in areas previously considered low-risk
- Increasing wildfire activity even outside the traditional summer fire season
Beyond the immediate threat to life and property, increased wildfire activity will affect air quality, water supplies, and ecosystem health across wide regions.
Ecological Changes: Shifting Habitats and Biodiversity
Our natural world won’t look the same by 2035. Climate change is altering habitats faster than many species can adapt.
Plant and Animal Range Shifts
As temperatures warm, plant and animal species are moving:
- Northward at an average rate of 10-30 miles per decade
- Upward in elevation at 30-100 feet per decade
According to the National Wildlife Federation, nearly 60% of plant and animal species are already shifting their ranges. By 2035, familiar local species may become rare while new ones appear. This reshuffling will affect everything from gardening zones to pollen seasons to pest control.
Impacts on Agriculture and Food Systems
American farmers face significant challenges and opportunities in the coming decade:
- Growing Seasons: While longer growing seasons benefit some crops and regions, increasing heat stress will harm others.
- Water Availability: Shifting precipitation patterns will create water surpluses in some agricultural areas and deficits in others.
- Pests and Diseases: Warmer winters allow agricultural pests and diseases to expand their ranges northward and survive year-round in previously inhospitable areas.
- Crop Yields: The USDA Climate Hubs project potential yield declines for corn, soybeans, and wheat in their current growing regions without adaptation measures.
Farmers are already adapting by changing planting dates, adopting drought-resistant crops, and improving irrigation efficiency. These adaptations will accelerate in the coming decade.
Marine Ecosystem Disruption
Ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation will continue to stress marine ecosystems. By 2035, expect:
- More frequent and extensive coral bleaching events
- Northward shifts in commercially important fish species
- Increasing harmful algal blooms in coastal waters
- Continued decline in shellfish populations due to ocean acidification
These changes will affect coastal economies dependent on fishing, tourism, and recreation. The NOAA Fisheries Service is working with fishing communities to develop adaptation strategies.
Water Resources: Too Much, Too Little, Wrong Time
Climate change is fundamentally a water story. Changes in the availability, timing, and quality of water will affect every American.
Strained Water Supplies
By 2035, approximately 40-50% of Americans will live in areas experiencing significant water stress at least seasonally. The U.S. Geological Survey highlights several concerning trends:
- Declining snowpack in the Western mountains, reducing summer water availability
- Earlier spring snowmelt, creating mismatches between water supply and demand
- Lower summer streamflows in many rivers
- Increasing groundwater depletion as surface water becomes less reliable
- Growing competition between agricultural, municipal, and ecological water needs
Communities are responding by improving water efficiency, recycling wastewater, and reevaluating water rights systems. These efforts will intensify in the coming decade.
Flooding: More Frequent, More Severe
While some regions face water scarcity, others will deal with too much water. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates that areas at risk of significant flooding could increase by 40-45% by 2035.
Areas facing increased flood risk include:
- Urban areas with high impervious surface coverage
- Communities along major rivers like the Mississippi and Missouri
- Coastal zones affected by sea level rise and stronger storms
- Areas downstream from aging dams and levees
The economic and social costs of flooding will grow significantly without major investments in resilient infrastructure and updated floodplain management.
Human Health Impacts: New Risks, Vulnerable Populations
Climate change will affect Americans’ health in numerous ways. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies several key health concerns for the coming decade:
Heat-Related Illness and Death
Heat already kills more Americans than any other weather disaster. By 2035, annual heat-related deaths could increase by thousands nationwide. Urban residents, outdoor workers, the elderly, and those without access to cooling are most vulnerable.
Vector-Borne Diseases
As temperatures warm, disease-carrying insects expand their ranges. By 2035, expect:
- Lyme disease-carrying ticks throughout the Northeast and Midwest and expanding into new regions
- Mosquito species capable of transmitting diseases like West Nile virus, dengue, and Zika in more states and for longer seasons
- Potential introduction of tropical diseases into southern states
Air Quality and Respiratory Health
Climate change affects air quality through multiple pathways:
- Longer and more intense pollen seasons, exacerbating allergies and asthma
- Increased ground-level ozone (smog) formation during hot weather
- More frequent and severe wildfires producing hazardous smoke
- Potential changes in indoor air quality due to increased humidity and mold growth
By 2035, the American Lung Association projects climate-related air quality impacts will cause billions in additional healthcare costs.
Mental Health Considerations
The psychological impacts of climate change—sometimes called “climate anxiety” or “ecological grief”—are increasingly recognized by mental health professionals. Extreme weather events can cause post-traumatic stress, while gradual changes and uncertainty about the future contribute to anxiety and depression.
Economic Impacts: Costs and Opportunities
Climate change will reshape the American economy over the next decade. The costs will be substantial, but so will the opportunities for innovation and job creation.
The Price Tag of Inaction
Multiple economic analyses suggest that without additional adaptation and mitigation measures, climate change could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars annually by 2035. These costs include:
- Property damage from extreme weather and sea level rise
- Agricultural losses from drought, heat, and flooding
- Healthcare costs from climate-related illnesses
- Reduced worker productivity during extreme heat
- Infrastructure damage and repair costs
According to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, climate damages will not be distributed equally—they will disproportionately affect lower-income communities and regions already facing economic challenges.
Growth Sectors in a Changing Climate
The transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy will create significant opportunities:
- Renewable Energy: Solar and wind installations will continue rapid growth, creating jobs in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance.
- Building Retrofits: Weatherizing and climate-proofing America’s buildings will employ millions of construction workers.
- Climate-Smart Agriculture: Farmers adopting regenerative practices that sequester carbon and build resilience will gain market advantages.
- Climate Tech: Companies developing technologies for adaptation, carbon removal, and emissions reduction will see substantial growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that many climate-related occupations will grow faster than average through the 2030s.
Climate Justice: Unequal Impacts, Equitable Solutions
Climate change doesn’t affect all Americans equally. Addressing these disparities will be a major focus in the coming decade.
Vulnerable Communities Face Greater Risks
Multiple factors make certain communities more vulnerable to climate impacts:
- Low-Income Urban Neighborhoods: Often lack green space, have older housing stock, and experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.
- Rural Communities: May have limited resources for disaster response and recovery, and economies tied to climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.
- Tribal Nations: Face unique challenges as climate change threatens cultural practices, traditional foods, and treaty rights.
- Communities of Color: Historical patterns of segregation and disinvestment have left many with inadequate infrastructure and fewer resources to adapt.
The Environmental Protection Agency has increased focus on these environmental justice concerns.
Building Equity into Climate Solutions
Climate policies are increasingly designed with equity considerations:
- Targeting clean energy investments to disadvantaged communities
- Ensuring meaningful involvement of all peoples in climate decision-making
- Providing transition assistance for workers in carbon-intensive industries
- Creating inclusive financing mechanisms for climate adaptation
The Justice40 Initiative aims to deliver 40% of the overall benefits from federal climate investments to disadvantaged communities.
Policy Landscape: Federal, State, and Local Action
Climate policy in the United States operates at multiple levels of government. The policy landscape will continue evolving over the next decade.
Federal Climate Initiatives
Recent federal legislation provides unprecedented funding for climate action:
- The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated hundreds of billions for climate-resilient infrastructure
- The Inflation Reduction Act represents the largest climate investment in U.S. history
- Federal agencies are implementing climate risk management across government operations
The White House Office of Domestic Climate Policy coordinates these efforts, but implementation timelines extend well into the next decade.
State Leadership and Innovation
States serve as policy laboratories for climate action. Leading examples include:
- California: Setting ambitious vehicle emission standards and clean electricity targets
- New York: Implementing climate risk disclosure requirements for businesses
- Washington: Pioneering carbon pricing policies
- Colorado: Creating comprehensive plans for just transition from fossil fuels
Interstate climate coalitions like the U.S. Climate Alliance will continue driving progress regardless of federal policy changes.
Local Climate Action
Cities and counties are often at the forefront of climate innovation:
- Updating building codes to improve energy efficiency and climate resilience
- Redesigning transportation systems to reduce emissions and improve mobility
- Protecting urban tree canopy to reduce heat island effects
- Creating climate-ready water infrastructure
Organizations like ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability help communities share best practices and track progress.
International Context: America’s Role in Global Climate Action
Climate change is inherently global. American climate policy influences—and is influenced by—international developments.
Global Emissions Trajectories
The next decade is critically important for global emissions. Most climate scientists agree that global greenhouse gas emissions must:
- Peak before 2025
- Decrease by approximately 45% from 2010 levels by 2030
- Reach net-zero around mid-century
Whether the world achieves these milestones will significantly affect climate outcomes in the latter half of the century.
U.S. Commitments and Leadership
The United States has pledged to:
- Reduce emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030
- Reach 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035
- Achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050
The U.S. State Department leads international climate diplomacy efforts.
Global Cooperation and Competition
The next decade will see intensified international cooperation on climate solutions, but also competition:
- Clean Energy Race: Countries are competing to dominate manufacturing and deployment of technologies like solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
- Climate Finance: Developed nations have pledged $100 billion annually to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.
- Border Carbon Adjustments: Carbon tariffs on imported goods may reshape global trade patterns.
- Loss and Damage: Addressing irreversible climate impacts in vulnerable countries will remain contentious.
Individual Action: What You Can Do
While systemic change is essential, individual choices still matter. Americans can reduce their climate impact and prepare for a changing climate in numerous ways.
Reducing Your Carbon Footprint
High-impact actions include:
- Transportation: Driving less, using public transit, carpooling, or switching to electric vehicles
- Home Energy: Improving insulation, installing heat pumps, and transitioning to renewable electricity
- Food Choices: Reducing food waste and shifting toward more plant-based meals
- Consumption: Buying fewer new products and choosing durable, repairable items
Tools like the EPA’s Carbon Footprint Calculator help identify your biggest impact areas.
Preparing for Climate Impacts
Practical steps to increase your resilience include:
- Know Your Risks: Research specific climate threats in your region
- Emergency Preparedness: Create emergency plans and supply kits
- Home Improvements: Consider flood-proofing, hurricane shutters, or wildfire-resistant landscaping based on local risks
- Financial Protection: Review insurance coverage for climate-related hazards
The Ready.gov website offers guidance for specific hazards.
Advocating for Change
Individual voices can drive broader change:
- Voting for candidates who prioritize climate action
- Participating in local planning processes
- Supporting businesses with strong climate commitments
- Talking with friends and family about climate change
The Citizens’ Climate Lobby and similar organizations help citizens effectively advocate for climate policies.
The Road Ahead: Reasons for Concern and Hope
The climate predictions for the next decade highlight serious challenges. Yet there are also reasons for optimism.
The Climate Moment Is Here
Public awareness and concern about climate change have reached unprecedented levels. According to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, a growing majority of Americans now view climate change as a serious threat requiring action.
This awareness is driving change across society:
- Businesses increasingly see climate action as essential to their long-term success
- Investors are shifting capital toward climate solutions
- Young Americans are making climate a top political priority
- Technological solutions are advancing rapidly and becoming more affordable
The Critical Decade
The 2020s have been described as “the critical decade” for climate action. Decisions made now will determine whether we limit warming to manageable levels or face much more severe consequences.
The next ten years will bring challenges, but also opportunities to build a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable society. By understanding what’s coming and taking action today, Americans can help shape a better climate future.
Our articles make government information more accessible. Please consult a qualified professional for financial, legal, or health advice specific to your circumstances.
