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Federal funding expires at midnight on September 30, 2025, and Congress has no agreement in place. Washington is heading toward another government shutdown.
President Donald Trump faces off against a divided Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune lead Republicans. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer represent Democrats.
The fight appears to be about a funding bill and health care policy. Democrats refuse to fund the government unless Republicans extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and reverse recent Medicaid cuts. Republicans say Democrats are holding the government hostage over unrelated demands. They want a “clean” funding bill first, with policy debates later.
The stalemate reflects deeper problems: political incentives, pressure from ideological party bases, and structural changes in American politics that have made gridlock normal.
Two Competing Funding Bills
The legislative stalemate centers on two competing, mutually exclusive continuing resolution proposals.
Republican “Clean” Resolution
House Republicans passed their CR version, H.R. 5371, extending government funding at current levels through November 21, 2025. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole call this a “clean” and “responsible” bill designed to prevent a shutdown and provide negotiation time.
Republicans argue major policy debates, particularly over health care, shouldn’t attach to must-pass funding legislation. These issues should be addressed separately later.
The “clean” label is political framing. The bill contains millions in new spending for enhanced security for federal officials across all three branches – added following the killing of a conservative activist. It extends several expiring health and veterans programs.
The debate isn’t whether to add policy provisions to the CR. It’s which party’s provisions are acceptable.
Democratic Counter-Proposal
Democrats proposed their own CR, funding government through October 31. Their bill includes major policy provisions they’ve declared “red line” demands:
Extending ACA Subsidies
Democrats want permanent extension of enhanced premium tax credits for individuals buying insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplace. These subsidies, first enacted during COVID-19, expire December 31, 2025.
Reversing Medicaid Cuts
The bill reverses deep Medicaid funding cuts, estimated at approximately $1.5 trillion over a decade, enacted in the Republican “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in July 2025.
Limiting Executive Power
The Democratic bill restricts the president’s ability to unilaterally freeze or cancel funds Congress appropriated – a tactic called “impoundment” or “pocket rescission.” The language aims to reassert Congress’s constitutional power of the purse.
| Feature | Republican CR (H.R. 5371) | Democratic CR (S.2882) |
|---|---|---|
| Funding Deadline | November 21, 2025 | October 31, 2025 |
| ACA Subsidies | Not included; deferred for later debate | Included; permanent extension |
| Medicaid Funding | No change; maintains cuts from “One Big Beautiful Bill” | Reverses cuts from “One Big Beautiful Bill” |
| Executive Power | No new limits on spending authority | Adds “guardrails” to prevent impoundment of funds |
| Other Provisions | Adds funding for official security; extends some health/vet programs | Restores funding for public broadcasting |
The Republican Strategy
Blaming Democrats
Republican strategy centers on a clear message: Democrats are responsible. Leaders from the White House to Congress accuse Democrats of “hostage-taking” and “hijacking” appropriations to force through their agenda. This narrative paints the Republican CR as the only reasonable path. Democrats must block it, accepting responsibility for shutdown consequences.
Republican messaging emphasizes that Democrats are blocking what they characterize as a straightforward funding extension in order to secure policy concessions.
This messaging aims to win public opinion. Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress – a fact that typically leads voters to blame them for shutdowns. Polling suggests the outcome is uncertain. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found 38% would blame Republicans, 27% would blame Democrats, and 31% would blame both parties equally. The Republican framing has gained some traction.
Using the Shutdown as a Tool
The Trump administration views the shutdown as strategic opportunity. Guided by OMB Director Russell Vought, a key Project 2025 architect, the administration plans to use the funding lapse to achieve policy goals unattainable through legislation.
The administration has indicated it plans to use the shutdown to reduce the size of federal agencies, viewing this as an opportunity to achieve what it considers necessary workforce reductions that would be difficult to accomplish through normal legislative processes.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the approximately $3 trillion tax and immigration package passed in July 2025, supports this strategy. That law provided multiyear funding for administration priorities, including the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security.
Core administration functions like border security and immigration raids continue uninterrupted during a shutdown. The pain falls disproportionately on agencies and programs Democrats champion. This selective immunity lowers the political risk of a shutdown for the administration, giving them greater leverage.
The Democratic Gamble
Pressure from the Progressive Base
The 2025 shutdown fight is a direct response to internal party dynamics and pressure from the progressive base. Democrats want to avoid repeating March 2025, when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer allowed a Republican funding bill to pass without securing policy concessions. That move triggered fierce progressive backlash, viewed as capitulation.
Leaders face pressure to take a harder line. The Congressional Progressive Caucus, led by Representative Greg Casar, argues Democrats can’t “roll over and play dead” when constituents’ health care is at stake. Polling of Democratic voters shows strong desire for elected officials to fight the administration, even risking a shutdown.
ACA Subsidies at Risk
The centerpiece of Democratic demands is extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits. These subsidies helped approximately 22-24 million people sign up for marketplace coverage. They expire December 31, 2025.
If Congress fails to act, millions of Americans face losing their entire subsidy as insurance premiums rise.
Analysis by KFF found average annual premium payments for subsidized enrollees would more than double, jumping 114% from $888 to $1,904. For some, like a 60-year-old couple earning just over 400% of the federal poverty level, the increase could exceed $22,600 annually.
The political timing amplifies pressure. Open enrollment for 2026 health plans begins November 1. Insurance companies are expected to send notices of these massive premium increases around October 1—the same week government shuts down.
Defending Congressional Authority
A less visible motivation is defending a core constitutional principle: Congress’s control over federal spending. The demand for “guardrails” on executive spending power responds to the Trump administration’s “pocket rescissions” to unilaterally freeze and cancel billions in funding Congress already approved. The Government Accountability Office deemed this practice illegal.
Democrats view this as an erosion of separation of powers. They’re using the funding fight to reassert legislative authority.
This convergence of popular policy (affordable health care), political motivation (pressure from the base), and constitutional principle (power of the purse) has solidified the Democratic position, making them less likely to compromise.
Internal Party Divisions
The all-or-nothing nature of a government shutdown exposes ideological fractures within both parties.
Republican Moderates vs. Conservatives
The Republican conference is caught between pragmatic moderates and rigid conservatives. Several moderate Republicans support extending ACA subsidies, recognizing expiration would lead to massive health care cost increases for constituents before a midterm election year.
This pragmatic approach is a nonstarter for the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. Members publicly pledged to vote against any funding bill including ACA subsidy extension, viewing it as unacceptable expansion of “Obamacare.”
Republican leadership faces an impossible choice: compromise with Democrats to win Senate votes and risk losing dozens of votes from their own right wing, making the bill impossible to pass in the House.
Democratic Dissenters
Democrats present a largely united front, but notable cracks appeared. In the Senate, where Republicans need Democratic support to overcome a filibuster, a small group – Senators Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, and Angus King of Maine – broke with their party to vote for the Republican CR.
Their rationale reveals deep strategic division. These senators don’t support the Republican health care position but fear a shutdown would be counterproductive. They argue by shutting down government, Democrats paradoxically hand more power to President Trump, allowing his administration to use the crisis to fire federal workers and reshape agencies without congressional oversight.
Senator King explained, “The paradox is by shutting the government we’re actually giving Donald Trump more power, and that was why I voted yes.”
This highlights fundamental disagreement over whether a shutdown provides leverage or is a self-inflicted wound empowering the executive branch.
The Deeper Roots of Gridlock
Decades of Polarization
Today’s gridlock is the culmination of decades-long structural changes in American politics. Analysis by Pew Research Center shows since the 1970s, both parties have become more ideologically uniform and moved further from the political center. Republicans, in particular, shifted dramatically right.
The “ideological middle” in Congress has completely disappeared. The zone where liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats once found common ground to forge compromises vanished. In the Senate, this middle ground ceased to exist after 2004.
Polarization is reinforced by geographic and demographic sorting. The Republican party dominates the South and rural areas. The Democratic base concentrates in diverse, urban centers. The two parties represent fundamentally different Americas with fewer shared experiences or political priorities.
The System Rewards Conflict
The political system incentivizes conflict over compromise. Several structural factors contribute:
Party Primaries
In many states, primaries are “closed” – only registered party members can vote. Low turnout means candidates are selected by a small core of the most committed, ideological partisans. This process filters out moderate, compromise-oriented candidates before they reach a general election.
Nationalized Politics
Elections have become increasingly nationalized. Local races are framed as referendums on national parties and leaders. This dynamic reduces incentive for lawmakers to focus on local issues where bipartisan cooperation might be easier. They align with the national party’s confrontational posture instead.
Campaign Finance
The need to raise campaign funds pulls candidates from the political center. Ideological donors, who hold more extreme views than the median voter, play outsized roles in funding campaigns, particularly in primary elections where their contributions are decisive.
The Replacement Effect
Research from the University of Chicago suggests growing polarization is driven less by sitting members becoming more extreme and more by a “replacement effect.” As moderate, older members retire, they’re consistently replaced by new, more ideologically rigid successors elected in the hyper-partisan modern environment. This ensures the trend toward polarization reinforces with each election cycle.
Political elites are far more polarized than the general public. Voters live with the consequences. The American electorate is “closely divided” rather than “deeply divided” on many specific issues. On Election Day, they can only choose from the increasingly polarized options parties present.
The result is a political system where gridlock is expected, not accidental. Incentives for individual lawmakers – from winning primaries to securing funding – overwhelmingly favor partisan conflict over bipartisan compromise. A government shutdown isn’t a system failure. It’s the system working as currently designed.
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