Existential Risks

Existential risks are the small set of dangers that could permanently and drastically reduce humanity’s prospects, whether by mass casualties, civilizational collapse, or the loss of the ability to recover from a catastrophe. This area looks at how the federal government identifies these risks, what tools it has to reduce them, and where its authority runs into the limits of international cooperation, private industry, and scientific uncertainty.

Emerging technology is one of the newest and fastest-moving fronts. The rise of powerful artificial intelligence systems raises questions about safety testing, corporate accountability, and how much power states versus the federal government should have to set rules before harms occur. AI Catastrophe covers this evolving debate over who oversees these systems and how.

Nuclear weapons remain the longest-standing existential threat that government policy has had to manage. Decisions about arms control treaties, weapons stockpiles, and deterrence strategy shape whether the risk of nuclear war rises or falls over time, and these choices involve trade-offs between national security, alliance commitments, and the sheer destructive potential of the weapons involved. Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Deterrence explains how these dynamics work and why they remain central to defense policy.

Across these subjects, the common thread is that government action, or inaction, on low-probability but catastrophic risks often lags behind the pace of technological change and the speed with which new threats can emerge. Readers looking to understand how policymakers weigh these risks against more immediate concerns will find the underlying tensions play out differently depending on the technology or weapon involved, but the core questions of oversight, accountability, and international coordination recur throughout.